The Macroeconomic Consequences of Exchange Rate Depreciations*

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Fukui, Masao; Nakamura, Emi; Steinsson, Jon
• 署名单位: Boston University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjaf039
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 3015-3065
• 关键词: monetary-policy; RATE REGIMES; stabilization; IMPACT; TRADE; aftermath; puzzles; ECONOMY; balance; crises

摘要

We study the consequences of regime-induced exchange rate depreciations by comparing outcomes for peggers versus floaters to the U.S. dollar in response to a dollar depreciation. Pegger currencies depreciate relative to floater currencies and these depreciations are strongly expansionary. The boom is associated with a fall in net exports, and (if anything) an increase in interest rates in the pegger countries. This suggests that expenditure switching and domestic monetary policy are not the main drivers of the boom. We show that a large class of existing models cannot match our estimated responses and develop a model with imperfect financial openness that can. Following a depreciation, uncovered interest parity deviations lower the costs of borrowing from abroad and stimulate the economy, as in the data. The model is consistent with (unconditional) exchange rate disconnect and the Mussa fact, even though exchange rates have large effects on the economy.