The Trade Effects of Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Egger, Peter; Larch, Mario; Staub, Kevin E.; Winkelmann, Rainer
• 署名单位: Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; University of Oxford; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Bayreuth; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Bayreuth; University of Zurich; University of Zurich
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.3.3.113
• 发表日期: 2011
• 页码: 113-143
• 关键词: count data models; sample selection; gravity; demand; CHOICE; FLOWS

摘要

Structural new trade theory models have never been used to evaluate and quantify the role of preferential trade agreement (PTA) membership for trade in a way which is consistent with general equilibrium. Apart from filling this gap, the present paper aims at delivering an empirical model which takes into account both that PTA membership is endogenous and that the world matrix of bilateral trade flows contains numerous zero entries. These features are treated in an encompassing way by means of (possibly two-part) Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation with endogenous binary indicator variables in the empirical model. (JEL F11, F13, F15)