Driving under the (Cellular) Influence

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bhargava, Saurabh; Pathania, Vikram S.
• 署名单位: Carnegie Mellon University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.5.3.92
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 92-125
• 关键词: phones; conversations; driver

摘要

We investigate the causal link between driver cell phone use and crash rates by exploiting a natural experiment induced by the 9 PM price discontinuity that characterizes a majority of recent cellular plans. We first document a 7.2 percent jump in driver call likelihood at the 9 PM threshold. Using a prior period as a comparison, we next document no corresponding change in the relative crash rate. Our estimates imply an upper bound in the crash risk odds ratio of 3.0, which rejects the 4.3 asserted by Redelmeier and Tibshirani (1997). Additional panel analyses of cell phone ownership and cellular bans confirm our result.