One in a Million: Field Experiments on Perceived Closeness of the Election and Voter Turnout

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gerber, Alan; Hoffman, Mitchell; Morgan, John; Raymond, Collin
• 署名单位: Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Toronto; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Purdue University System; Purdue University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-APPLIED ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7782
• DOI: 10.1257/app.20180574
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 287-325
• 关键词: people vote; direct mail; PARTICIPATION; bandwagon; models; polls; REPRESENTATION; gubernatorial; mobilization; expectations

摘要

During the 2010 gubernatorial elections, we elicit voter beliefs about the closeness of the election before and after showing different polls, which, depending on treatment, indicate a close or not-close race. Subjects update their beliefs in response to polls, but overestimate the probability of a very close election. However, turnout is unaffected by beliefs about election closeness. A follow-up RCT, conducted during the 2014 gubernatorial elections at much larger scale, also points to little relationship between poll information about closeness and turnout. We caveat that the strength of our evidence depends on assumptions regarding our treatments' impacts on beliefs.