SeaTE: Subjective ex ante Treatment Effect of Health on Retirement

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Giustinelli, Pamela; Shapiro, Matthew D.
• 署名单位: Bocconi University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-APPLIED ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7782
• DOI: 10.1257/app.20210316
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 278-317
• 关键词: choice-probabilities; social-security; expectations; BEHAVIOR; work; insurance; decisions; determinants; intentions; beliefs

摘要

The paper studies the effect of health on work among older workers by eliciting two- and four -year -ahead subjective probabilities of working under alternative health states. These measures predict work outcomes. Person -specific differences in working probabilities across health states can be interpreted as Subjective ex ante Treatment Effects ( SeaTEs ) in a potential outcomes framework and as taste for work within a discrete choice dynamic programming framework. There is substantial heterogeneity in expectations of work conditional on health. The paper shows how heterogeneity in taste for work correlated with health can bias regression estimates of the effect of health on retirement. ( JEL D84, I12, J14, J22, J26 )