The Productivity Consequences of Pollution-Induced Migration in China

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Khanna, Gaurav; Liang, Wenquan; Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq; Song, Ran
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California San Diego; Tongji University; Jinan University; Deakin University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National University of Singapore
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-APPLIED ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7782
• DOI: 10.1257/app.20220655
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 184-224
• 关键词: air-pollution; life expectancy; temperature inversion; quantitative-analysis; sustained exposure; workers; IMPACT; education; cities; urbanization

摘要

We quantify how pollution affects aggregate productivity and welfare in spatial equilibrium. We show that skilled workers in China emigrate away from polluted cities. These patterns are evident under various empirical specifications, such as when instrumenting for pollution using upwind power plants, or thermal inversions. Pollution changes the spatial distribution of skilled and unskilled workers, and wage returns by location. We quantify the loss in aggregate productivity due to this re-sorting by estimating a spatial equilibrium model. Counterfactual simulations show that reducing pollution increases productivity through spatial re-sorting by approximately as much as the direct health benefits of clean air. (JEL J24, J31, J61, P25, P28, Q53, R23)