How Do Households Value the Future? Evidence from Property Taxes

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Koster, Hans R. A.; Pinchbeck, Edward W.
• 署名单位: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; University of Birmingham
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.20200443
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 207-239
• 关键词: discount rate; loss aversion; fuel-economy; capitalization; price; time; consumption; schools; POLICY; MARKET

摘要

Despite the near ubiquity of intertemporal choice, there is little consensus on the rate at which individuals trade present and future costs and benefits. We contribute to this debate by estimating discount rates from extensive data on housing transactions and spatiotemporal variation in property taxes in England. Our findings imply long-term average net of growth nominal discount rates that are between 3 and 4 percent. The close correspondence to prevailing market interest rates gives little reason to suggest that households misoptimize by materially undervaluing very long-term financial flows in this high-stakes context.