Minimum-Wage Increases and Low-Wage Employment: Evidence from Seattle

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: JARDIM, E. K. A. T. E. R. I. N. A.; LONG, M. A. R. K. C.; PLOTNICK, R. O. B. E. R. T.; VAN INWEGEN, E. M. M. A.; VIGDOR, J. A. C. O. B.; WETHING, H. I. L. A. R. Y.
• 署名单位: Amazon.com; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; National Bureau of Economic Research; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.20180578
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 263-314
• 关键词: labor-market outcomes; mobility; models

摘要

Seattle raised its minimum wage to as much as $11 in 2015 and as much as $13 in 2016. We use Washington State administrative data to conduct two complementary analyses of its impact. Relative to outlying regions of the state identified by the synthetic control method, aggregate employment at wages less than twice the original minimum-measured by total hours worked-declined. A portion of this reduction reflects jobs transitioning to wages above the threshold; the aggregate analysis likely overstates employment effects. Longitudinal analysis of individual Seattle workers matched to counterparts in outlying regions reveals no change in the probability of continued employment but significant reductions in hours, particularly for less experienced workers. Job turnover declined, as did hiring of new