Juvenile Crime and Anticipated Punishment

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Arora, Ashna
• 署名单位: University of Chicago
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.20210530
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 522-550
• 关键词: deterrence evidence; gang membership; reducing crime; prison; AGE; youth; incarceration; delinquency; EMPLOYMENT; majority

摘要

Can sanctions deter juvenile crime? Research indicates that they may not, as offending barely decreases when individuals cross the age of criminal majority and begin to face harsher sanctions. Several models of criminal behavior predict, however, that these small reac-tions close to the threshold may mask larger behavioral responses among individuals below the age threshold. Policy variation between 2007-2015 in the United States is used to show evidence consistent with these predictions-juvenile crime increases when the age of majority is increased. This increase is driven by younger age groups and is considerably larger than discontinuity estimates at the thresh-old. (JEL D91, J13, K42)