Climate Change and Labor Reallocation: Evidence from Six Decades of the Indian Censust

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Liu, Maggie; Shamdasani, Yogita; Taraz, Vis
• 署名单位: United States Department of the Treasury; National University of Singapore; Smith College
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.20210129
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 395-423
• 关键词: agricultural productivity; migration response; economic-impacts; temperature; weather; GROWTH; fluctuations; DAMAGES; yields; COSTS

摘要

How do rising temperatures affect -long-term labor reallocation in developing economies? In this paper we examine how increases in temperature impact structural transformation and urbanization within Indian districts between 1951 and 2011. We find that rising temperatures are associated with lower shares of workers in -nonagricultural sectors, with effects intensifying over a longer time frame. Supporting evidence suggests that local demand effects play an important role: declining agricultural productivity under higher temperatures reduces the demand for -nonagricultural goods and services, which subsequently lowers nonagricultural labor demand. Our results illustrate that rising temperatures limit sectoral and -rural-urban mobility for isolated households.