Brexit Uncertainty and Its (Dis)Service Effectst

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ahmad, Saad; Limao, Nuno; Oliver, Sarah; Shikher, Serge
• 署名单位: Georgetown University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.20200808
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 459-485
• 关键词: Policy uncertainty; Services trade; IMPACT

摘要

We estimate the impact of increased policy uncertainty from Brexit on UK trade in services. We apply an uncertainty-augmented gravity equation to UK services trade with the European Union at the industry level from 2016:I to 2018:IV. By exploiting the variation in the probability of Brexit from prediction markets interacted with a new trade policy risk measure across service industries, we identify a significant negative impact of the threat of Brexit on trade values and participation. The increased probability of Brexit in this period lowered services exports by at least 20 log points. (JEL F13, F14, F15)