Demand Estimation Under Incomplete Product Availability

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Conlon, Christopher T.; Mortimer, Julie Holland
• 署名单位: Columbia University; Boston College; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MICROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7669
• DOI: 10.1257/mic.5.4.1
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 1-30
• 关键词: discrete-choice models; maximum-likelihood; distributions

摘要

Incomplete product availability is an important feature of many markets, and ignoring changes in availability may bias demand estimates. We study a new dataset from a wireless inventory system on vending machines to track product availability every four hours. The data allow us to account for product availability when estimating demand, and provide valuable variation for identifying substitution patterns when products stock out. We develop a procedure that allows for changes in product availability when availability is only observed periodically. We find significant differences in demand estimates: the corrected model predicts significantly larger impacts of stock-out events on profitability.