On the Experimental Robustness of the Allais Paradox

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Blavatskyy, Pavlo; Ortmann, Andreas; Panchenko, Valentyn
• 署名单位: Montpellier Business School; University of New South Wales Sydney
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MICROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7669
• DOI: 10.1257/mic.20190153
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 143-163
• 关键词: utility-theory; subject misconceptions; decision-making; pay-willingness; accept gap; CHOICE; INDEPENDENCE; RISK; rationality; heuristics

摘要

The Allais Paradox, or the common consequence effect, is a well-known behavioral regularity in individual decision-making under risk. Data from 81 experiments reported in 29 studies reveal that the Allais Paradox is a fragile empirical finding. The Allais Paradox is likely to be observed in experiments with high hypothetical payoffs, the medium outcome being close to the highest outcome and when lotteries are presented as a probability distribution (not in a compound form). The Allais Paradox is likely to be reversed in experiments when the probability mass is equally split between the lowest and highest outcomes in risky lotteries.