Which Findings Should Be Published?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Frankel, Alexander; Kasy, Maximilian
• 署名单位: University of Chicago; University of Oxford
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MICROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7669
• DOI: 10.1257/mic.20190133
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 1-38
• 关键词: registered reports; credibility

摘要

Given a scarcity of journal space, what is the optimal rule for whether an empirical finding should be published? Suppose publications inform the public about a policy-relevant state. Then journals should publish extreme results, meaning ones that move beliefs sufficiently. This optimal rule may take the form of a one-or two-sided test comparing a point estimate to the prior mean, with critical values determined by a cost-benefit analysis. Consideration of future studies may additionally justify the publication of precise null results. If one insists that standard inference remain valid, however, publication must not select on the study's findings.