Trade and Urbanization: Evidence from Hungary

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Nagy, David Krisztian
• 署名单位: Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MICROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7669
• DOI: 10.1257/mic.20180270
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 733-790
• 关键词: MIGRATION; TECHNOLOGY; elasticity

摘要

I study how trade affects urbanization and real income. To this end, I exploit large-scale exogenous changes in trade stemming from the redrawing of Hungary's borders after the First World War. I show that urbanization in counties near the new border decreased significantly relative to counties farther away. I rationalize this reduced-form finding in a spatial model in which benefits from trading drive agglomeration around locations where trading activity takes place. Structurally estimating the model, I find a 15.55 percent decrease in Hungarian residents' average real income after the redrawing of borders, with the largest losses concentrated in border regions.