Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: News From A Non-linear World

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Colombo, Valentina; Nodari, Gabriela
• 署名单位: University of Padua; University of Melbourne; University of Verona; University of New South Wales Sydney
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12263
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 746-776
• 关键词: government purchases; POLICY; shocks; INFORMATION; recessions

摘要

We estimate non-linear VARs to assess to what extent fiscal spending multipliers are countercyclical in the US. We deal with the issue of non-fundamentalness due to fiscal foresight by appealing to sums of revisions of expectations of fiscal expenditures. This measure of anticipated fiscal shocks is shown to carry valuable information about future dynamics of public spending. Results based on generalised impulse responses suggest that fiscal spending multipliers in recessions are greater than one, but not statistically larger than those in expansions. However, non-linearities arise when focusing on extreme' events, that is, deep recessions versus strong expansionary periods.