THE COSTS OF ECONOMIC NATIONALISM: EVIDENCE FROM THE BREXIT EXPERIMENT

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Born, Benjamin; Mueller, Gernot J.; Schularick, Moritz; Sedlacek, Petr
• 署名单位: Frankfurt School Finance & Management; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; University of Bonn; University of Oxford
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/uez020
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 2722-2744
• 关键词: Policy uncertainty; TRADE; IMPACT; news; fluctuations; INFORMATION; stimulus

摘要

Economic nationalism is on the rise, but at what cost? We study this question using the unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum vote as a natural macroeconomic experiment. Employing synthetic control methods, we first show that the Brexit vote has caused a UK output loss of 1.7% to 2.5% by year-end 2018. An expectations-augmented VAR suggests that these costs are, to a large extent, driven by a downward revision of growth expectations in response to the vote. Linking quasi-experimental identification to structural time-series estimation allows us not only to quantify the aggregate costs but also to understand the channels through which expected economic disintegration impacts the macroeconomy.