Does Oil Promote or Prevent Coups? The Answer is Yes

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Nordvik, Frode Martin
• 署名单位: BI Norwegian Business School
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12604
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 1425-1456
• 关键词: NATURAL-RESOURCES; civil conflict; models; DEMOCRACY; detat; WAR

摘要

A large literature investigates the relation between oil and conflict, yet no empirical study has found any link between oil and coups d'etat. Using a new data set on oil production separated into onshore and offshore volumes, oil price shocks are seen to promote coups in onshore-intensive oil countries, while preventing them in offshore-intensive oil countries. A likely mechanism is that onshore oil motivates military build-ups, while offshore oil does not. From a political leader's point of view, a large military is a double-edged sword because it may turn against him and stage a coup.