The Political Scar of Epidemics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Eichengreen, Barry; Saka, Orkun; Aksoy, Cevat Giray
• 署名单位: European Bank of Reconstructon & Development; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); City St Georges, University of London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; European Bank of Reconstructon & Development; University of London; King's College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/uead103
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 1683-1700
• 关键词: trust

摘要

Epidemic exposure in an individual's 'impressionable years' (ages 18 to 25) has a persistent negative effect on confidence in political institutions and leaders. This loss of trust is associated with epidemic-induced economic difficulties, such as lower income and unemployment later in life. It is observed for political institutions and leaders only and does not carry over to other institutions and individuals. A key exception is a strong negative effect on confidence in public health systems. This suggests that the distrust in political institutions and leaders is associated with the (in)effectiveness of a government's healthcare-related response to epidemics. We show that the loss of political trust is largest for individuals who experienced epidemics under weak governments with low policymaking capacity, and confirm that weak governments in fact took longer to introduce policy interventions in response to COVID-19. We report evidence that the epidemic-induced loss of political trust discourages electoral participation in the long term.