Who Wins and Loses in a Bubble? Evidence from the British Bicycle Mania

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Queens University Belfast
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0507
• DOI: 10.1017/S0022050725000129
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 475-504
• 关键词: individual investors; women investors; MARKET; overconfidence; SHAREHOLDERS; expectations; familiarity; england; finance; London

摘要

How do different types of investors perform during financial bubbles? Using a rich archival source, we explore investor performance during the British bicycle mania of the 1890s. We find that directors and employees of cycle companies reduced their holdings substantially during the crash. Those holding shares after the crash were generally not from groups stereotypically thought of as na & iuml;ve, but gentlemen living near a stock exchange, who had sufficient time, money, and opportunity to engage in speculation. Our findings suggest that the investors most at risk of losing during a bubble are those prone to familiarity and overconfidence biases.