The Cross of Gold: Brazilian Treasure and the Decline of Portugal

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Northwestern University; University of Manchester
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0507
• DOI: 10.1017/S0022050725100764
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 730-766
• 关键词: economic-growth; Dutch disease; booming sector; TRADE; divergence; money; prices

摘要

As late as 1750, Portugal had a high output per head by Western European standards. Yet just a century later, Portugal was this region's poorest country. In this paper, we show that the discovery of massive quantities of gold in Brazil over the eighteenth century played a key role in the long-run development of Portugal. The country suffered from an economic and political resource curse. A counterfactual based on synthetic control methods suggests that by 1800 Portugal's GDP per capita was 40 percent lower than it would have been without its endowment of Brazilian gold.