Foundations of Bayesian theory

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Karni, Edi
• 署名单位: Johns Hopkins University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2005.08.005
• 发表日期: 2007
• 页码: 167-188
• 关键词: Subjective expected utility; Bayesian theory; subjective probabilities

摘要

This paper states necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence, uniqueness, and updating according to Bayes' rule, of subjective probabilities representing individuals' beliefs. The approach is preference based, and the result is an axiomatic subjective expected utility model of Bayesian decision making under uncertainty with state-dependent preferences. The theory provides foundations for the existence of prior probabilities representing decision makers' beliefs about the likely realization of events and for the updating of these probabilities according to Bayes' rule. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.