Subjective probabilities on small domains

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kopylov, Igor
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Irvine; University of California System; University of California Irvine
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2005.11.002
• 发表日期: 2007
• 页码: 236-265
• 关键词: Subjective probability; expected utility; Probabilistic sophistication; Ellsberg paradox; mosaic

摘要

The Savagian choice-theoretic construction of subjective probability does not apply to preferences, like those in the Ellsberg Paradox, that reflect a distinction between risk and ambiguity. We formulate two representation results-one for expected utility, the other for probabilistic sophistication-that derive subjective probabilities but only on a small domain of risky events. Risky events can be either specified exogenously or in terms of choice behavior; in the latter case, both the values and the domain of probability are subjective. The analysis identifies a mathematical structure-called a mosaic-that is intuitive for both exogenous and behavioral specifications of risky events. This structure is weaker than an algebra or even lambda-system. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.