HOW LONG DO UNILATERAL TARGET ZONES LAST

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: DUMAS, B; SVENSSON, LEO
• 署名单位: Stockholm University; Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/0022-1996(94)90014-0
• 发表日期: 1994
• 页码: 467-481
• 关键词: Exchange rates; interventions; reserves

摘要

We examine the expected survival time of a unilateral exchange rate target zone, when constraints on monetary policy prevent the central bank from exclusively focusing on defending the target zone. Generally the width of the target zone has a negligible effect on the expected survival time, and the dominant determinants are reserve levels and the degree of real and monetary divergence between the country in question and the rest of the world. For seemingly realistic parameters, the expected survival time is fairly long: a few decades rather than a few years.