Endogenous growth and wave-like business fluctuations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bambi, Mauro; Gozzi, Fausto; Licandro, Omar
• 署名单位: University of York - UK; Luiss Guido Carli University; University of Pisa; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Institut d'Analisi Economica (IAE); Barcelona School of Economics
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2014.08.004
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 68-111
• 关键词: endogenous growth; endogenous fluctuations; Innovation cycles; time delays; Medium-term cycles; Hopf bifurcation

摘要

This paper argues that observed long lags in innovation implementation rationalize Schumpeter's statement that wave-like fluctuations in business ... are the form economic development takes in the era of capitalism. Adding implementation delays to an otherwise standard endogenous growth model with expanding product variety, the equilibrium path admits a Hopf bifurcation where consumption, R&D and output permanently fluctuate. This mechanism is quantitatively consistent with the observed medium-term movements of US aggregate output. In this framework, an optimal allocation may be restored at equilibrium by the mean of a procyclical subsidy, needed to generate additional consumption smoothing Finally, a procyclical R&D subsidy rate designed to half consumption fluctuations will increase the growth rate from 2.4% to 3.4% with a 9.6% (compensation equivalent) increase in welfare. (c) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.