Tax policy and consumer spending: evidence from Japanese fiscal experiments

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Watanabe, K; Watanabe, T; Watanabe, T
• 署名单位: Bank of Japan; Bank of Japan; Hitotsubashi University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1996(00)00077-5
• 发表日期: 2001
• 页码: 261-281
• 关键词: consumption; permanent income hypothesis; taxation; near-rationality

摘要

This paper studies the extent to which the impact of tax policy on consumer spending differs between temporary and permanent, as well as anticipated and unanticipated tax changes. To discriminate between them, we use institutional information such as legal distinction between temporary and permanent tax changes, as well as timing of policy announcement and implementation. We find that the impact of temporary changes is significantly smaller than the impact of permanent changes. We also find that more than 80 percent of Japanese consumers, including those who distinguish between temporary and permanent tax changes, respond to tax changes at the time of their implementation and not at the time of a policy announcement. We suggest an interpretation that these consumers follow a near-rational decision rule. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.