Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chinn, MD; Prasad, ES
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1996(02)00089-2
• 发表日期: 2003
• 页码: 47-76
• 关键词: current account; net foreign assets; savings; INVESTMENT; panel regressions; capital controls

摘要

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the medium-term determinants of current accounts for a large sample of industrial and developing countries, utilizing an approach that highlights macroeconomic determinants of longer-term saving and investment balances. Cross-section and panel regression techniques are used to characterize the variation of the current account across countries and over time. We find that current account balances are positively correlated with government budget balances and initial stocks of net foreign assets. Among developing countries, measures of financial deepening are positively associated with current account balances while indicators of openness to international trade are negatively correlated with current account balances. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.