What drives long-term capital flows? A theoretical and empirical investigation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Verdier, Genevieve
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.04.005
• 发表日期: 2008
• 页码: 120-142
• 关键词: credit constraints; net external debt; capital flows; savings; CONVERGENCE; capital shares; CES production function

摘要

What drives capital inflows in the long run? This paper illustrates how capital movements conform surprisingly well to the predictions of a neoclassical model with credit constraints. The most intriguing prediction of this class of models is that, contrary to a pure neoclassical model, domestic saving should act as a complement rather than a substitute to capital inflows. Nevertheless, this class of models keeps the neoclassical prediction that capital should flow to countries where it is most scarce. Using foreign debt data from 1970 to 1998, I find qualitative and quantitative evidence that supports these predictions. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.