Temptation and forward-guidance

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Airaudo, Marco
• 署名单位: Drexel University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2019.104989
• 发表日期: 2020
• 关键词: Monetary policy; new Keynesian model; Forward guidance; temptation; self-control

摘要

Motivated by the extensive experimental and empirical evidence on preference reversal in consumption choices, we introduce temptation with self-control preferences into a New Keynesian model to study the effects of forward guidance in monetary policy, and the related forward guidance puzzle. In our setup, the representative agent faces a trade off between the temptation for immediate satisfaction (liquidate wealth) with his long-run best (smooth consumption), which he manages by exerting cognitive effort (or self-control). For higher risk aversion in temptation than in commitment utility, there is discounting in the linearized Euler equation. The latter makes the response of current real activity to the announcement of a future policy change declining in the forward guidance horizon, which then helps solving the puzzle. Our framework delivers testable aggregate and policy implications that distinguish it from alternative microfoundations for discounting in the Euler equation previously used to solve the puzzle. (C) 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.