Unforeseen evidence

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Piermont, Evan
• 署名单位: University of London; Royal Holloway University London
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2021.105235
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: Extended Bayesianism; Reverse Bayesianism; Conditional expectations

摘要

I propose a normative updating rule, extended Bayesianism, for the incorporation of probabilistic information arising from the process of becoming more aware. Extended Bayesianism generalizes standard Bayesian updating to allow the posterior to reside on richer probability space than the prior. I then provide a behavioral characterization of this rule to conclude that a decision maker's subjective expected utility beliefs are consistent with extended Bayesianism. (c) 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.