Belief hedges: Measuring ambiguity for all events and all models

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Baillon, Aurelien; Bleichrodt, Han; Li, Chen; Wakker, Peter P.
• 署名单位: Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2021.105353
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: Subjective beliefs; ambiguity aversion; Ellsberg paradox; Sources of uncertainty

摘要

We introduce belief hedges, i.e., sets of events whose uncertain subjective beliefs neutralize each other. Belief hedges allow us to measure ambiguity attitudes without knowing those subjective beliefs. They lead to improved ambiguity indexes that are valid under all popular ambiguity theories. Our indexes can be applied to real-world problems and do not require expected utility for risk or commitments to two-stage optimization, thereby increasing their descriptive power. Belief hedges make ambiguity theories widely applicable. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).