Multiple priors and comparative ignorance

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kopylov, Igor
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Irvine; University of California System; University of California Irvine
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2020.105132
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: Ambiguity aversion; Comparative ignorance; Intransitivity; preference reversals; Partition dependence; Decision avoidance

摘要

Fox and Tversky (1995) observe comparative ignorance: people are more ambiguity averse when they evaluate ambiguous and clear prospects jointly rather than in isolation. To accommodate such patterns, I relax the multiple priors model and allow subjective sets of priors to depend on partitions that are generated by feasible prospects. All sets of priors are derived uniquely on the corresponding partitions. This model violates transitivity, but preserves all other axioms of Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989). A parsimonious special case identifies a threshold partition pi such that all pi-measurable prospects are ranked via a set of priors P, but all other comparisons rely on a distinct set P*. Another refinement derives partition-dependent probabilistic beliefs without imposing ambiguity aversion. (C) 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.