Learning under ambiguity: An experiment in gradual information processing

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ngangoue, M. Kathleen
• 署名单位: New York University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2021.105282
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: Learning; ambiguity; experiment; Maximum likelihood updating; full Bayesian updating

摘要

This experiment studies belief updating under ambiguity, using subjects' bid and ask prices for an asset with ambiguous payoff distribution. Bid and ask quotes allow for distinguishing between the two main paradigms of updating under ambiguity-full Bayesian updating and maximum likelihood updating. We find substantial heterogeneity in subjects' reaction to information. The majority of subjects (54%) chose quotes that were in line with full Bayesian updating, while another, non-negligible, group (35%) behaved like maximum likelihood updaters. (c) 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.