Modeling players with random data access

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Spiegler, Ran
• 署名单位: Tel Aviv University; University of London; University College London
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2021.105374
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: Non-rational expectations; Non-standard type space; Archival information; Maximum entropy; Limited data access

摘要

I present an approach to static equilibrium modeling with non-rational expectations, which is based on enriching players' typology. A player is characterized by his data access, consisting of: (i) news access, which corresponds to a conventional signal in the Harsanyi model, and (ii) archival access, a novel component representing the player's piecemeal knowledge of steady-state correlations. Drawing on prior literature on correlation neglect and coarse reasoning, I assume the player extrapolates a well-specified probabilistic belief from his archival data according to the maximum-entropy criterion. I show with a series of examples how this formalism extends our ability to represent and analyze strategic interactions without rational expectations. (c) 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.