Measuring preferences over the temporal resolution of consumption uncertainty

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Meissner, Thomas; Pfeiffer, Philipp
• 署名单位: Maastricht University; Technical University of Berlin
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2021.105379
• 发表日期: 2022
• 关键词: Recursive utility; Timing of resolution of uncertainty; Preference elicitation; Timing premia; Risk and time preferences

摘要

Timing premia measure how much consumption people are willing to forgo to resolve all consumption uncertainty immediately. We develop a novel experiment to elicit these attitudes directly in a model-free way. On average, subjects forgo around 5% of their total consumption to resolve all uncertainty immediately. Recursive utility models postulate a structural link between timing premia and deep preference parameters. We elicit these preference parameters separately and estimate corresponding predicted timing premia. Comparing directly elicited and predicted timing premia allows us to test this structural link. Surprisingly, we find a negative correlation between predicted and elicited timing premia. (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).