Bayesian social aggregation with accumulating evidence

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Pivato, Marcus
• 署名单位: CY Cergy Paris Universite
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2021.105399
• 发表日期: 2022
• 关键词: Subjective expected utility; utilitarian; Ex ante Pareto; Stochastic process

摘要

How should we aggregate the ex ante preferences of Bayesian agents with heterogeneous beliefs? Suppose the state of the world is described by a random process that unfolds over time. Different agents have different beliefs about the probabilistic laws governing this process. As new information is revealed over time by the process, agents update their beliefs and preferences via Bayes rule. Consider a Pareto principle that applies only to preferences which remain stable in the long run under these updates. I show that this eventual Pareto principle implies that the social planner must be a utilitarian. But it does not impose any relationship between the beliefs of the individuals and those of the planner, except for a weak compatibility condition.(c) 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.