The probability of pluralistic ignorance

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Fernandez-Duque, Mauricio
• 署名单位: Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas A.C. (CIDE)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2022.105449
• 发表日期: 2022
• 关键词: Pluralistic ignorance; Group size; Image concerns; Expected judgments; social learning

摘要

I develop a theory of group interaction in which individuals who act sequentially are concerned with conforming to what they believe is the majority attitude. Pluralistic ignorance may arise, an outcome with incomplete learning in which individuals conform to a mistaken sense of the majority attitude, earning the majority's disapproval. The degree of uncertainty about the population distribution of attitudes affects what individuals learn about the group. A central finding is that the learning dynamics have a different impact on the probability of pluralistic ignorance in small and in large groups. I derive the maximum and minimum probabilities of pluralistic ignorance for groups of different sizes, as a function of the preferences for conformity and of uncertainty over attitudes. The theory provides hypotheses about underexplored questions regarding the prevalence of pluralistic ignorance.(c) 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.