A test of (weak) certainty independence

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Koenig-Kersting, Christian; Kops, Christopher; Trautmann, Stefan T.
• 署名单位: University of Innsbruck; Maastricht University; Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg; Tilburg University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2023.105623
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: Ellsberg paradox; Ellsberg urn; Machina paradox; Certainty independence; Weak certainty independence

摘要

We provide a test of the axioms of certainty and weak certainty independence in models of decision -making under subjective uncertainty. We show that it is through these two weakenings of the classic independence axiom that prominent ambiguity models retain properties that stand in conflict with the ambiguity-sensitive behavior that is revealed in our experiment. Our findings suggest that this conflict may be of a more fundamental nature than what most of these models can accommodate. Our results call for the use of ambiguity models that can accommodate an ambiguity attitude which depends on the chances of winning.(c) 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons .org /licenses /by /4 .0/).