Motivated naivete

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Tang, Rui; Zhang, Mu
• 署名单位: Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2023.105636
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: Motivated reasoning; naivete; Menu preference; present bias; Disjunction effect

摘要

We study a decision maker's ex-ante choices over menus. The decision maker has in mind a set of pos-sible future preferences that can be justified, for instance, by her past behavior, and she naively evaluates each menu according to the best option in the menu among those that can be rationalized by her future preferences. We provide a characterization for this menu preference, discuss the uniqueness of its represen-tation, and propose a comparative measure of the decision maker's naivete. We apply our model to study two behavioral biases: naivete about present bias and the disjunction effect.(c) 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.