Factor proportions and the growth of world trade

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Zymek, Robert
• 署名单位: University of Edinburgh
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.10.004
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 42-53
• 关键词: Heckscher-Ohlin; international trade; CHINA

摘要

Most of the expansion of global trade since 1980 has been of the North-South kind between capital-abundant developed and labour-abundant developing countries. Based on this observation, I argue that the recent growth of world trade is best understood from a factor-proportions perspective. Using data on trade barriers and estimates of capital-labour ratios for a group of 45 economies between 1980 and 2008, I find that a calibrated factor-proportions model can generate significant trade growth during this period, amounting to 90% of the observed rise in North-South trade. The opening up of China alone accounts for three quarters of the predicted increase. In line with the model, I present evidence that China's liberalisation has raised the exports and imports of capital-abundant countries relative to more labour-abundant economies. Overall, my findings suggest that factor-proportions theory may be useful for interpreting several quantitative and qualitative aspects of growing world trade in a period during which the group of large, open economies has become significantly less homogenous. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.