Capital-flow management measures: What are they good for?

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Forbes, Kristin; Fratzscher, Marcel; Straub, Roland
• 署名单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Humboldt University of Berlin; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.11.004
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: S76-S97
• 关键词: Capital controls; Macroprudential measures; Propensity-score matching; selection bias; capital flows; Emerging markets

摘要

Are capital controls and macroprudential measures related to international exposures successful in achieving their objectives? Assessing their effectiveness is complicated by selection bias; countries which change their capital-flow management measures (CFMs) often share specific characteristics and are responding to changes in variables that the CFMs are intended to influence. This paper addresses these challenges by using a propensity-score matching methodology. We also create a new database with detailed information on weekly changes in controls on capital inflows, capital outflows, and macroprudential measures related to international transactions from 2009 to 2011 for 60 countries. Results show that these macroprudential measures can significantly reduce some measures of financial fragility. Most CFMs do not significantly affect other key targets, however, such as exchange rates, capital flows, interest-rate differentials, inflation, equity indices, and different volatilities. One exception is that removing controls on capital outflows may reduce real exchange rate appreciation. Therefore, certain CFMs can be effective in accomplishing specific goals but most popular measures are not good for accomplishing their stated aims. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.