Virus dynamics with behavioral responses

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Dasaratha, Krishna
• 署名单位: Boston University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2023.105739
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: Epidemics; Social distancing; Risk compensation; SIR; Covid-19

摘要

Motivated by epidemics such as COVID-19, we study the spread of a contagious disease when behavior responds to the disease's prevalence. We extend the SIR epidemiological model to include endogenous meeting rates. Individuals benefit from economic activity, but activity involves interactions with potentially infected individuals. The main focus is a theoretical analysis of contagion dynamics and behavioral responses to changes in risk. We obtain a simple condition for when public-health interventions or variants of a disease will have paradoxical effects on infection rates due to risk compensation. Behavioral responses are most likely to undermine public-health interventions near the peak of severe diseases.(c) 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.