Semi-endogenous or fully endogenous growth? A unified theory

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cozzi, Guido
• 署名单位: University of St Gallen
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2023.105732
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: Strong scale effect; Semi-endogenous growth; Fully endogenous growth

摘要

Is growth ultimately fully endogenous or semi-endogenous? Three decades of theoretical and empirical growth economics have kept both possibilities open. Here, R&D-driven growth is a general combination of both semi-endogenous and fully endogenous mechanisms.I demonstrate that if the semi-endogenous growth component is indispensable to the actual growth mechanism, the long-run growth rate follows the semi-endogenous growth predictions. Conversely, if the semi-endogenous growth is non-essential and the world population experiences slow growth, the fully en-dogenous growth mechanism could dictate the long run, even if it is not essential.If no other (third) growth mechanism exists, a criterion sufficient to ascertain the essentiality of semi -endogenous growth is that reduced research consistently leads to fewer innovations.If an unknown third growth engine exists, the steady state remains semi-endogenous, provided the essentiality criterion is met. Regardless of how this third factor impacts short-term growth, semi-endogenous growth will prevail in the long run.(c) 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons .org /licenses /by /4 .0/).