Food prices and the multiplier effect of trade policy

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Giordani, Paolo E.; Rocha, Nadia; Ruta, Michele
• 署名单位: Luiss Guido Carli University; World Trade Organization; The World Bank
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.04.001
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 102-122
• 关键词: Loss aversion; Trade policy; multiplier effect; Food crisis

摘要

This work studies the relationship between trade policy and food prices. We show that when individuals are loss averse, governments may use trade policy to shield the domestic economy from large food price shocks. This creates a complementarity between the price of food in international markets and trade policy. Specifically, unilateral actions give rise to a multiplier effect: when a shock drives up the price of food, exporters respond by imposing restrictions, while importers wind down protection, thus exacerbating the initial shock and soliciting further trade policy activism. We test the key prediction of the theory with a new dataset that comprises monthly information on trade measures across 77 countries and 32 food products for the period 2008-11, finding evidence of a multiplier effect in food trade policy. These findings contribute to inform the broader debate on the proper regulation of food trade policy within the multilateral trading system. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.