Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ductor, Lorenzo; Leiva-Leon, Danilo
• 署名单位: Middlesex University; Central Bank of Chile
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.07.003
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 110-127
• 关键词: business cycles; Markov-switching; Network analysis; model uncertainty

摘要

In this paper, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the time-varying interdependence among the economic cycles of the major world economies during the post-Great Moderation period. We document a significant increase in the global business cycle interdependence occurred in the early 2000s. Such increase is mainly attributed to the emerging market economies, since their business cycles became more synchronized with the rest of the world around that time. Moreover, we find that the increase in global interdependence it highly related to decreasing differences in sectoral composition among countries. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.