Terms of trade and global efficiency effects of free trade agreements, 1990-2002

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Anderson, James E.; Yotov, Yoto V.
• 署名单位: Boston College; Drexel University; Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.10.006
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 279-298
• 关键词: Free trade agreements; gravity; Terms of trade; distance function

摘要

This paper infers the terms of trade effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) implemented in the 1990s. We estimate large FTA effects on bilateral trade volume in 2 digit manufacturing goods from 1990-2002, using panel data gravity methods to resolve two way causality. The terms of trade changes implied by these volume effects are deduced for 40 countries plus a rest-of-the-world aggregate using an endowments general equilibrium model. Some countries gain over 5% of real manufacturing income, some lose less than 0.3%. Global efficiency of manufactures trade rises 0.9% based on a distance function measure of iceberg melting. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.