A population's feasible posterior beliefs

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Arieli, Itai; Babichenko, Yakov
• 署名单位: Technion Israel Institute of Technology
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2023.105764
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: Feasible posterior distribution; Empirical distributions of posteriors; polarization; Bayesian persuasion

摘要

We consider a population of Bayesian agents who share a common prior over some finite state space and each agent is exposed to some information about the state. We characterize which distributions over the empirical distribution of posterior beliefs in the population are feasible. We apply this result in several domains. First, we study the problem of maximizing the polarization beliefs in a population. Second, we provide a characterization of the feasible agent-symmetric product distributions of posteriors. Finally, we study an instance of a private Bayesian persuasion problem and provide a clean formula for the sender's optimal value.