Bubble thy neighbour: Portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Forbes, Kristin; Fratischer, Marcel; Kostka, Thomas; Straub, Roland
• 署名单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank; Bank of England
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.12.010
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 85-104
• 关键词: Capital controls; Extemalities; spillovers; signalling; Mutual funds; BRAZIL

摘要

We use changes in Brazil's tax on capital inflows from 2006 to 2013 to test for direct portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls on investor portfolios. We find that an increase in Brazil's tax on foreign investment in bonds causes fund managers to significantly decrease their portfolio allocations to Brazil in both bonds and equities. Fund managers simultaneously increase allocations to other countries that have substantial exposure to China and decrease allocations to countries viewed as more likely to adjust their capital controls. Much of the effect of capital controls on portfolio allocation appears to occur through signalling - i.e., changes in investor expectations about future policies - rather than the direct cost of the controls. This evidence of significant externalities from capital controls suggests that any assessment of controls should consider their effects on portfolio flows to other countries. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.