Aggregate volatility and international dynamics. The role of credit supply

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gete, Pedro; Melkadze, Givi
• 署名单位: IE University; Georgetown University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.01.002
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 143-158
• 关键词: credit supply; current account; uncertainty; Trade balance; precautionary savings

摘要

Changes in country-specific aggregate volatility are positively correlated with the current account but negatively correlated with investment, output and credit flows. An International Real Business Cycle model with time-varying aggregate uncertainty, through a precautionary savings channel, can account for the positive correlation but implies counterfactual comovements for the other variables. Adding a credit supply channel with default and lenders exposed to aggregate risk allows the model to match all the facts. Higher volatility contracts credit supply and lowers investment and output. The current account turns to a surplus because savings increase, but also because investment collapses. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.