Real interest rates and productivity in small open economies

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Monacelli, Tommaso; Sala, Luca; Siena, Daniele
• 署名单位: Bocconi University; Bocconi University; Polytechnic University of Milan
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103746
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: aggregate productivity; Real interest rates; Capital inflows; Capital Structural VARs

摘要

We construct factor utilization-adjusted measures of aggregate TFP for a sample of advanced (AEs) and emerging market small open economies (EMEs). We estimate the effects of real interest rate shocks on TFP and GDP using structural VARs. The results are starkly different in the two groups of countries. While TFP is pro-cyclical in both sets of countries, lower real interest rates -a proxy for capital inflows -lead to productivity booms in EMEs, whereas they lead to a contraction in productivity in AEs.(c) 2023 Published by Elsevier B.V.